apologies again

I really wish i was able to be making forecasts more frequently. anyway, i hope you all managed to get in the water yesterday afternoon. down here in seaside park, we were surfing head to a little plus fun barrels from when the wind switched till dark, my arms are still jelly.

we should see leftovers fading through the weekend and then picking up a little bit on tuesday. nothing much to speak of, and we are going to be dealing with light on/sideshore winds through most of the period. Should be some fun ones at low tide.

Summary: Look for waves in the knee-thigh high range for the next few days. early next week maybe a bump up to waist high.
winds will be light and variable through the period mostly out of the southern half of the compass

sorry again

But my house currently has no roof, and therefore i cant live there. I will only be making posts on mondays and thursdays until about oct. 10.

Sorry guys, but there isn't much i can do about it.

tr

Its on,

I think...

so I am not in jersey so i cant back up anything i say, but looking at the bouys it looks like the swell has hit. and good. The latest reading off long island was SE swell at 12.5 seconds 6.6 feet. Get up as early as you can and go. maybe you can find some light winds.

as for the rest of the week, tomorrow is biggest but the swell will do a slow fade into the end of the week, so we should get some favorable winds in there somewhere

tr

Philippe

So i have been checking out some satelitte images, and i believe that philippe is going to deliver the goods.

Look for The swell from Philippe to start showing some more size later on today. I believe the swell that we are seeing this morning is the first wave (haha) of the swell that is really going to hit well in the few days to come. The problem is going to be a NE wind that will be kicking up its own windswell starting on saturday.

Right now it looks like tomorrow will see some modest waves with good conditions, at least in the morning.

Saturday will see bigger waves, with unfavorable winds (for NJ) but LI might get the good winds and get hit well with the SE swell.

Sunday the winds may head back to SW giving us a good shot at clean conditions on what may be the best day of the swell.

I am heading up to Rhode Island for this one, so i probably will not get an update in until after the swell has passed. If i get a chance i will try to update on friday night or saturday during the day.

Hope you get it good

TR

Philippe

Well philippe is not looking like much of a storm at this point. He still has some high winds, but mostly the storm is sheared apart.

The good news, philippe is movinf in our direction, that makes for a longer "virtual fetch" if philippe can keep his shit together for the next few days we could be seeing a 6 foot ocean swell at 16 seconds, which is pretty rare for the east coast. If the winds were to be favorable on fri/sat/sun when this thing arrives, there could be some firing surf to be had. If the winds are N or northeast, it might be time to make the trek to Long island, or somewhere north of there, which is where i will be!

I dont want to hype this swell too much, there are no bouys out there that can see this swell until it gets close to us, and i want to believe it, but until Philippe ets better organized, or i start to see some better data, I am going to be just Cautiosly Optimistic about this

For the short term, nothing really worth talking about until friday, maybe a windy south bump but nothing significant

well, i dont get it but...

date time sig ht| swl ht|T| D

09	15	6:00 pm		4.6		4.6		8.3		S	1.3	3.3		SSE	AVERAGE	6.4
09	15	5:00 pm		4.6		4.3		7.7		S	1.3	3.8		SSE	AVERAGE	6.2
09	15	4:00 pm		4.3		4.3		7.7		S	1.3	4.0		SE	AVERAGE	6.1
09	15	3:00 pm		4.6		4.3		7.7		S	1.3	4.0		SSE	AVERAGE	6.2
09	15	2:00 pm		4.3		4.3		8.3		S	1.3	3.0		SSE	AVERAGE	6.1
09	15	1:00 pm		4.6		4.3		7.7		S	1.6	4.0		SE	AVERAGE	6.1
09	15	12:00 pm		3.9		3.6		8.3		S	1.3	3.7		SE	AVERAGE	5.9
09	15	11:00 am		3.6		3.6		7.7		S	1.3	3.3		SE	AVERAGE	5.8
09	15	10:00 am		3.9		3.6		6.7		SSE	1.3	4.2		SSE	STEEP	5.8

this is why it is hard to forecast waves for NJ
at 10:00 am we have 3.6 foot swells and barely a wave hitting the beach
at 6:00 pm we have 4.6 foot swells, same direction, and its overhead

go figure

anyway, the swell has finally arrived. I am going to go out on a limb right now and say that it will last into tomorrow morning at least!

Seriously, The swell should stick around at least until Ophelia passes us. If she passes us that is, Instead of following the paths of pretty much any forecast that I have seen, Ophelia seems to be meandering around maybe taking after her namesake and losing her mind slowly while spinning around south of hatteras.

All bets are off on wind forecasts for the next few days, other than they most likely will not be going offshore significantly until at least saturday.

While Ophelia is spinning around where she is, she is in our swell window, if she starts moving west again, then she may become blocked by hatteras once again.


Enough discussion: What you need to know

Fri: Look for the lightest winds in the morning and the swell to be solid. It was overhead on the set just before dark, and i wouldn't expect much decrease in size overnight, in fact it will probably build.

Sat: if you believe the National weather service, the wind will be west. If ophelia has passed us by then we will see west winds, if ophelia is still spinning around off hatteras we will still be seeing light onshore flow. waves could be from 4-8 feet

Sun: again all bets off could be dead flat, could be overhead. my thinking right now just from Ophelia's history is the storm will probably be off the coast on sunday so look for offshore winds later in the day with a fading but still stong swell


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all those wins in the black circle are are pointed at us. the reds are pretty strong

Good news and bad news

Well Ophelia has remained a tricky storm to forecast, she stayed just far enough west for most of her swell to miss us, although yesterday some waist high waves were surfed.

The good news, is that as of 6:48 am today, and probably a little before that. Ophelia has some winds pointed at us and not blocked by hatteras. The Fetch is just going to increase as she moved further east.

The bad news, we will probably not see offshore winds until the storm passes.

Some light at the end of that bad news tunnel.. We wont get into really hard onshore winds until the storm gets very close, and there is a small chance that thursday morning, we will see some light offshores.

Size for thursday morning is a little tricky. The wave models i usually look at are performing pretty poorly, so i am not really sure what exactly to expect.

My thinking is that we will not see the 9 foot open ocean swells that the model is predicting to hit south jersey. I would think that a 4 foot ocean swell is more likely. Keep in mind though that a 4 foot ocean swell is capable of producing some pretty heavy surf at some NJ locations that amplify swells.

as for arrival times, Think overnight. You should be waking up tomorrow morning to a pretty healthy swell. Since we are this late in the year, and temperatures are getting pretty chilly at night, we might be lucky enough to get a land breeze tonight. That like a sea breeze only the opposite direction.

Long range: Look for the swell to increase in size through friday with winds backing around the compass from SE to E finally to NE

For the weekend, look for North winds and a residual easterly swell. Ophelia will likely be pulling away by then, but she may still send some swell back our way.

Ophelia: part 57

Looks like Ophelia has weakened a bit, she may be down, but she isn't out.

Off of hatteras the bouys are reading around 10 feet, that energy should start making its way up here by tomorrow afternoon hopefully. This swell is extremely south, so it is going to have a little bit of trouble making it to some of out more easterly or NErly facing beaches. The ones that do get it, the swell might be pretty gutless.

My thinking on size... Probably in the waist to chest range, nothing spectactacular, but maybe some good waves coming in.

As the week progresses, the size will almost certainly increase, though conditions will deteriorate with the wind picking up from the SE.

More updates as info becomes available

Ophelia: redux

So here's the deal. Ophelia is spinning around just south of hatteras. We are not getting swell from her right now for 2 readons.

1 hatteras (those bastards) is blocking some of the swell

2) (the real reason) almost none of the winds in this storm are blowing in our direction. This is unfortunate because we are going to be switching into a offshore wind direction by tomorrow.

The forecast.

The winds will start to point in our direction, and the storm will start to move north.
This means good quality south swell for NJ. Combined with west winds i would guess that monday is likely to see rising surf, up to chest high, and tuesday sees probably the best conditions of the week with head high waves, and some of the best spots are going to see overhead sets.

So monday and tuesday should be good, and depending on what the storm does, the winds might stay offshore longer into wed, thurs.

Note!!!!!
Opelia is a tropical storm in an area that has very few winds pushing her around. This means it is Very hard to predict the forecast track. I think the forecast i am giving you is the best forecast we have at this time, but it is possible that ophelia could make landfall in south or north carolina, changing the forecast and our potential for waves for the worse.

Mon, Tues Wed

Real quick here, but if you need to pick a day to take off work, i would go with Tuesday or wed. looks like we are going to see a real nice setup of offshores, and decent size waves, poss. head high +.

This weekend: Look for good size waves to persist, but the winds might get kind of kind of funky, mornings should be best. Monday we see a wind shift to offshore with swell left over, tueday we see the waves really start to pick up. Its going to be a hard S. swell so look for south facing beaches to get it best.

more on sunday, I promise this time

Internet Issues resolved! and... cross your fingers

I hope..

sorry about the lack of posts lately, I've been wanting to throw my computer out the window.

Wednesday is looking like it could be a really sweet setup right now.

Maria is spinning around out in the atlantic, pretty far out, but she is not really much of a hurricane anymore. Contary to what you might think, this is a good thing! as she makes the transition to an extra-tropical cyclone, he wind field will expand, giving her a huge fetch pointed pretty much straight at us, and Long Island too. While we will be seeing NE winds building the swell in the near term, on wednesday those winds should drop off, (if not switch offshore in the AM) leaving us with clean conditions. We will be seeing a mix of shorter period NE wind swell, and easterly ground swell. The easterly component may tend to close out some of the beach breaks, but i can think of a few jetties that are going to be absolutely on fire. The best part, THE KIDS ARE BACK IN SCHOOL!!! even this afternoon the beaches around here were desolate, and i havent heard a car drive by my house in 3 or 4 minutes, a sure sign that fall is upon us.

So check it out on wed. I'll try to come back with some more info tomorrow

Tim

happy labor day

short term: Look for heavy NE winds for the next few days bringing us an increase in size. The waves are going to be big, but mostly unrideable

longer term: The wind willl switch sometime later this week, Thurs. or friday, when it does there should be some leftovers.

I'll update on wed.