Times they are a changin'

Well Folks, things are about to change around here. I will be leaving the east coast for more wave rich stomping grounds. I will be starting a job at The Weather Underground I highly suggest you check out the site for weather information. Their forecasts are far superior to the weather channel or accuweather. Anyway, I will continue to do this forecast but probably less frequently, more like once a week.

Once I get settled in out there, I will likely begin to develop a surf forecast. It will be free and hopefully be a little better than surfline's.

I appreciate all the support and I will continue to provide the forecast for the forseeable future.


and now the forecast.

Tomorrow and wednesday will see a decent size swell. The winds will be out of the north/Northeast tomorrow switching to NW/W on wednesday.

The swell should be huge tomorrow, and drop significantly by wed. Its going to be tough to predict any heights for wed, the situation is just too complicated. What is pretty certain though, is that by wed evening, we will be looking at some pretty small waves.

How quickly things change

Looks like we are in the running for a swell coming up in the next week. Hurricane wilma looks like she will move up the coast producing some sort of swell, as for now the swell models are all over the place on what the surf will be like, so I wouldn't go out and buy that 8'6 rhino chaser just yet. My guess is that friday or saturday are going to be the earliest days to call this one. Right now I would start thinking about the possibility of freeingsome time in your schedule a little for sunday evening through tuesday.

more as the models settle down a bit

Great day!

Well the am saw some monster sets, The pier was firing with sone of the bomb sets easilly double overhead. I was amazed there were no Photogs out in the afternoon.

Tomorrow should be really good in the morning, but fade fast through the day, so find your high tide spot and go early.

as for the next shot at waves....

I'd take up skateboarding

Weekend shaping up

Well Thursday is really the first day i like to make solid wind predictions for the weekend so here it goes

The wind should go west sometime saturday morning. This swell will clean up and the windswell part will fade away quickly leaving the longer period swell to linger around through the weekend.

As for size. around 10 feet for saturday morning, fading through sunday afternoon to around 4-5 feet.

both days should be pretty exceptional

TR

Picking up

We will be seeing the surf rapidly increasing today to about 6 feet by evening. Seas will continue to build through the week. Saturday we expect to see a NJ clean up.

Winds may go N on thursday or friday, so some of the more protected N spots will be working.

Still on, But...

Its looking like the wind is going to be a little bit screwey. The latest batch of model runs has the wind either going offshore saturday evening, or pretty much immediately switching to N.

There are worse things than a N wind, if you find the right beach. The swell is still on track, a bit of a drive is all you need.

Good luck. Hopefully the wind will cooperate on saturday afternoon for a big offshore session.

good luck

Tim

Its on!

Ok, this weekend will definitely see big waves. There is almost no question at this point.the X factor is the wind. Right now predictions are for the wind to go offshore sometime midday saturday. who knows when it will really switch, but it will sometime on saturday.

as for sizes, think mar. 2004 we had a huge south swell, a couple of guys caught it HUGE at the shark river inlet. My guess is that some sets right as the wind switches could approach 15 foot faces.

Sunday we will have north winds to contend with. I can think of 2 places to go on N winds that absolutely fire, but i'll leave it at that.

the swell along with the N winds should hang around at least through tuesday.

good luck, if i dont get to post tomorrow, this will likely be my last post until monday

TR

weekend still on track

Looks like the swell this weekend is getting more in the likely to be at least something category. Right now we are looking at the setup for a Big south swell that would be likely to clean up on saturday sometime. First guess at the size is somewhere in the overhead range fading throughout the day. Sunday may see some waist high or a little better waves also.

For the remainder of the week. Look for a small bump in size for tomorrow afternoon, but east winds will likely be putting a lot of chop on it.

More updates tomorrow.

tr

still on track

Looks like we are going to see the waves maintaining their current size for a bit longer. If you are up north this is little consolation i'm sure but for "The O.C" we will be likely to keep seeing those little longboardable maybe even shortboardable waves in the water.

This could pick up to maybe stomach high on tuesday through midweek.

As for this weekend...

Looking at a system that could move up the coast this weekend, and blow in some good old nor'easter type surf.

BE WARNED!!! this time of year, models get a little dicey on these types of storm, the atmosphere is changing from a summertime pattern to its wintertime pattern. It is not unusual for a weather model to be forecasting a big storm up the coast for a few days, and then the storm completely won't happen.

anyway, i would guess that by wed/thurs I will be able to come back with a better forecast for this weekend.

Summary:

Look for Mon/Tues to be about the same as today was

Wed/thurs and maybe into friday look for a bump up to waist-stomach high in the best spots. Thursday has the best chance of seeing some offshores, although every day has the potential for AM offshore breezes

Friday and beyond, all eyes on our storm

More updates!!!

Well i'm back to a more regular schedule of updates, i have som dial up internet here. its hard to give real full picture but i should be able to give the heads up early enough.

For the week starting tomorrow.

look for the waves to stay about the same as they were today. in NJ that ranged from ankle high up north to waist high in some OC breaks. from now on, ocean county will be referred to as "The O.C." Tomorrow we should see some light winds to start out and maybe even some A.M offshores.

The interesting feature of the week is next saturday. som emodels are predicting 15 foot waves at 9 seconds. this will most likely not be the case, but it is likely that we will see some possibly sizeable windswell next weekend, so dont touch that dial!

-TR