well, i dont get it but...

date time sig ht| swl ht|T| D

09	15	6:00 pm		4.6		4.6		8.3		S	1.3	3.3		SSE	AVERAGE	6.4
09	15	5:00 pm		4.6		4.3		7.7		S	1.3	3.8		SSE	AVERAGE	6.2
09	15	4:00 pm		4.3		4.3		7.7		S	1.3	4.0		SE	AVERAGE	6.1
09	15	3:00 pm		4.6		4.3		7.7		S	1.3	4.0		SSE	AVERAGE	6.2
09	15	2:00 pm		4.3		4.3		8.3		S	1.3	3.0		SSE	AVERAGE	6.1
09	15	1:00 pm		4.6		4.3		7.7		S	1.6	4.0		SE	AVERAGE	6.1
09	15	12:00 pm		3.9		3.6		8.3		S	1.3	3.7		SE	AVERAGE	5.9
09	15	11:00 am		3.6		3.6		7.7		S	1.3	3.3		SE	AVERAGE	5.8
09	15	10:00 am		3.9		3.6		6.7		SSE	1.3	4.2		SSE	STEEP	5.8

this is why it is hard to forecast waves for NJ
at 10:00 am we have 3.6 foot swells and barely a wave hitting the beach
at 6:00 pm we have 4.6 foot swells, same direction, and its overhead

go figure

anyway, the swell has finally arrived. I am going to go out on a limb right now and say that it will last into tomorrow morning at least!

Seriously, The swell should stick around at least until Ophelia passes us. If she passes us that is, Instead of following the paths of pretty much any forecast that I have seen, Ophelia seems to be meandering around maybe taking after her namesake and losing her mind slowly while spinning around south of hatteras.

All bets are off on wind forecasts for the next few days, other than they most likely will not be going offshore significantly until at least saturday.

While Ophelia is spinning around where she is, she is in our swell window, if she starts moving west again, then she may become blocked by hatteras once again.


Enough discussion: What you need to know

Fri: Look for the lightest winds in the morning and the swell to be solid. It was overhead on the set just before dark, and i wouldn't expect much decrease in size overnight, in fact it will probably build.

Sat: if you believe the National weather service, the wind will be west. If ophelia has passed us by then we will see west winds, if ophelia is still spinning around off hatteras we will still be seeing light onshore flow. waves could be from 4-8 feet

Sun: again all bets off could be dead flat, could be overhead. my thinking right now just from Ophelia's history is the storm will probably be off the coast on sunday so look for offshore winds later in the day with a fading but still stong swell


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all those wins in the black circle are are pointed at us. the reds are pretty strong