Back!

Sorry abut the lack of updates, I unexpectedly had no internet for a few days, but things are better now.

Today: Look for conditions to stay about the same as they are now, a sea breeze could kick up locally, so I would get out as early as you can.

Tues.-Wed: Stays in the waist to a little bigger range. Tuesday has the chance of some clean conditions especially early. Wed. the wind will pick up heavy from the south and the surf will pick up too. Look for waves building into the head high range with messy conditions.

Thurs: Morning should bring an offshore wind with a pretty sizeable chest - head swell left in the water.

Fri: fading swell with clean conditoions possibly some knee high leftovers

weekend/tropics: not much happening

hey katrina

The NHC has just classified tropical depression 12. This storm will likely be Katrina by tomorrow morning. The forecast calls for the storm to move over florida and emerge into the gulf of mexico, but i have a sneaking suspicion that this storm may stall out in the vicinity of florida and would likely reverse itself and come up the east coast. This would be very ood for waves, so stay tuned, all your huricane orecasting needs are here.

This week: Nothing. The windswell that has been talked about by many, just isn't going to build big enough here to be significant. combined with N winds, we will have a few days of "get wet if you really need to" surf, but nothing worth ditching work for.

Great weekend, good week???

Well folks, I have heard a bunch of complainin' about how this weekend sucked and such, but I have to say, i got some sweet bodysurfing in on Fri/Sat and Sunday had some clean "Legit shoulder high" waves, as my neighbor put it. The incoming tide Sunday afternoon saw some powerful barrels for stomach high, and some pretty fun sets.

anyway, on to the future. What was around yesterday is still hanging around in the water today, The south winds we are seeing right now aren't the best, but havent chopped things up too much so far. If they go lighter or switch back to west this evening, you can bet there will be some fun peaks on the incoming tide again.

For the long term.
Once again we are completely up in the air with a storm that looks to be swinging in around midweek. My hunch is that we wont see much in the way of swell from this one, its still way to early in the year for nor'easters. I am going to keep checking on this, and if i see a few more model runs point to the same storm moving off the coast, i will let you know

Tim

I'm flakey, I know

Sorry about the lack of real forecasting for this swell, i wasn't even really sure there was going to be anything tomorrow morning till i just went down to the beach at 11:45 the moon was up and the waves looked about waist high with some chest sets. So look for that tomorrow morning with offshores the tide is at 9:30 so get up early to catch the best waves.

more of the same for tuesday with a bit of longer period swell thrown in for good measure.

As for later in the week models are showing some swell for mid to late week. keep tuned for more on that

Surf forecasters suck

Well, this weekend, once looking full of promise, sucks to forecast. The swell that looked even last night, like it would build, hasn't really shown up. Doesn't look hopeful for the rest of the weekend either. Saturday will likely be windy and small, with early sunday being slightly larger, but stull windy. Look for the winds to switch in the afternoon on sunday, but its anyones guess if the waves will still be sticking around. There is a decent chance that S winds ahead of the front could kick up some south swell. Hate to keep pushing you back, but check back Tomorrow for an update.

Where all the good waves at???

well despite some fun waves yesterday, the wind has pretty much come up and kept any swell in the water from being too rideable. Fortunately there is some hope for this weekend. SE background swell and building surf from the onshore winds we will be seeing the next few days will keep the surf fun, though messy for the next few days. This will all change on saturday evening/sunday when a cold front comes through shifting the winds around to the west. Hopefully the winds will shift early morning sunday as opposed to late afternoon saturday, giving us the best size and clean conditions on sunday morning.

recap:

Fri:
building sloppy surf, waist high range most likely

Sat:
Still Building still choppy, possible PM cleanup

Sun:
Look for offshore winds and clean conditions. surf somewhere between stomach to head high
(sorry about the large range, i'll try to nail i down better tomorrow)

Tim

Hello From RI

scored some great surf today up here in RI, had a real fun session with sets about 8 or 9 feet at Ruggles, then later in the afternoon checked out a less well known spot, a nice left point, that was firing at about 6-7 feet. I didn't surf there because it was getting dark, but watched for a good half hour and saw some guys tearing it up.

Surfing at Ruggles is an amazing trip, you are surfing in front of these amazing old mansions and there are a million tourists taking pictures of you on every wave. The vibe is pretty cold, it seems like the locals get a little posessive when the lineup is packed with a bunch of abrasive out of towners. All it takes is giving a little respect, and plenty of waves are yours for the taking. One of my new favorite waves.

and the forecast...

as you probably guessed, this swell is going to begin a slow fade into the middle of the week. Winds won't be ideal, but waves will be in the water so any wind switches to offshore should be closely monitored.

as this swell fades into thursday, we may see a newer windswell picking up. This one will be generated by non tropical forces, and is far into the future so it is far from certain. More as it unfolds

Recap:

tues-thurs:
tuesday starts out somewhere in the chest to head high range and begins a slow fade into thursday

thurs-???:
A possible new wind swell could hit on thursday, This one has some potential for good size so check back in the next few days and i will keep you up to date


Tim

Hate to bring the bad news

Unfortunately, it looks like we aren't going to be seeing much in the way of huge surf in the near future. The swell we have now wont likely fade into oblivion until Wed. at the earliest, but i would not expect to see too many overhead waves coming through in the next few days. Some of the really good spots that do a good job of concentrating longer period swell into big surf may stand a chance of seeing the occasional overhead set. The average beach break in Jersey is more likely to be seeing sets maxing out around head high. There is also likely to be a NE wind kicking in on monday, so look for out of control, possibly larger than forecast conditions. In short, i wouldn't plan on blowing off work for this swell. This season is likely to produce many more storms coming up the coast, so just be a bit patient and you should get another shot pretty soon


sorry this is short, i am in Rhode island, and dont have much time to write, The forecast was done quickly so dont yell too much if the waves are slightly bigger than i forecast

tim

Heads!!

Looks like the swell filled in a little bit on the early side today. The period at the bouy off long island jumped up to 12 seconds around 11 o'clock. Unfortunately for me, I had a meeting up north today and missed out.

The good news though, is this swell isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Defintely its going to stick around through the weekend, and if the winds stay light like thay have been recently, we are going to be set up for an ultra-fun weekend. Looking at the swell models, I suspect we wont see too much of a size increase until sometime on saturday, most likely around dark. Sunday has potential to be a great day, but you are probably going to need to find a spot somewhat sheltered from Southerly/SWerly winds. I can think of at one place i would really like to be on sunday.

I dont want to speculate too much as to what is going to happen on Tues/Wed, as predicting a hurricane 5 days into the future is about as accurate as a boardwalk psychic. I am relatively sure that there will still be waves in the water. You might hear some forecasters blowing this up, claiming "its going to be epic" or some such excitement. I would take this with a grain of salt, and keep in mind that this storm has proven to be hard to forecast already, and the models have done a terrible job of it. That said, it may actually be an "epic" swell, though I would worry a little bit about the winds being completely out of the wrong direction.


anyway, to recap
Summary:

Friday: Go in the morning, the wind is going to kick up by the afternoon. the waves should be similar in size to the waves today, that ranged from waist to about shoulder across the state.

Saturday: Again, winds will be a factor, go early the tide will be low, and the winds have the best chance of being light

Sunday: Look for an increase in size, I wouldn't rule out head high sets. winds will be a factor, find a break that can take a SW wind

Monday: Same as sunday

Tues/Wed: Waves... but how big, what the winds will be doing and whether we are dealing with a full blown hurricane at our door are all up in the air. Dont believe any hype till at least saturday. The hype might be right, but if it is, it was a lucky shot. When i have any real confidence i will update

Tim

Good News!

Well its finally happened, TD Irene is officially entering our swell window, and she is just starting to increase in strength. I looked at the most recent satellite wind measurement, and it looks like there may be some 50kt winds near the center of the storm. The better news is that swell is on the way. Its already in the water and heading our direction. It should start to show itself on thursday night or friday morning. The swell should pretty much build from there. I would expect the surf to start out in the waist high range and build to chest by the weekend. but that is al contingent on the track and strength of Irene, a storm who has proven difficult to forecast.

The monkey wrench in this whole business though is that we are going to be seeing another swell mixing in with Irenes. we should see some south swell starting out tomorrow. this might be the dominant swell for the beginning part of Irene's waves. Look for this swell to be in the waist to chest range possibly. Its going to be one of those hard south swells that has the potential to totally miss us, but i think this one should make it in.



summary

Wed: More of the same, thigh to waist high background swell

Thursday: increasing southerly swell, light winds should make for some fun surf

Friday: more light winds with 2 swell trains making appearances irenes SE swell and the more local south swell should make for fun conditions

Weekend: Look for saturday to be the best day probably with lighter winds and some decent size swell waist to chest range. sunday the size should increase somewhat, but strong S/SW winds might chop things up a bit.


Long range: Irene Dominates the forecast. Look for some serious surf in the 5-7 day range if irene tracks towards us

some fun surf out ther

Just came in from an afternoon longboard session, and there are some fun waves coming through. I caught one or 2 waist high sets in the hour I was out there, so they are coming through, just not very often. expect more of the same tomorrow and then an increase on wed. I'll post more about wed. tomorrow. as of right now i am not sure if we will see much, but tomorrow i will have a handle on things, sorry but i dont want to speculate on things 2 days away that are really prety ambiguous.

tim

Tropics

Looks like the tropics arent living up to their wave generating potential just yet. Tropical Storm Irene is spinning around, but at this time she looks like she will recurve too far off the coast to bring us any real swell. aside from a few potential south swells we may get in the next week, dont expect to see too much in the way of waves.

Tim

er um...

Well it seems that while i was in hatteras Gert slipped under my radar, so it seems we have Harvey out there now.

Speaking of which...

Looks like harvey is not going to be producing the fetch in our direction i had anticipated. At least not yet. we may get some background swell through the next few days from it, but i would guess nothing bigger than we saw today, and probably not even that big.

The good news is that there is a pretty large tropical wave off the coast of africa, the NHC thinks this may develop, and i will believe them for now. Any swell from this is a long way away, but keep checking back for more developments

Summary

Tomorrow: Probably in the waist high range, the winds should be favorable in the morning.

Friday: Not looking too terrible, possibly up to waist high, and clean conditions early, with a usual summer shift out of the south later in the afternoon possible

Weekend, more of the same, smallish, but with more variable winds

Hot tropical action!

Looks like we may be in for some more tropical swell hitting tomorrow afternoon or thursday AM. Tropical depression 8 soon to be known as Tropical stor Gert gained depression status sometime this afternoon as it began to develop a visible center of circulation. Satellite wind measurements have measured some 35-40 kt winds in the vicinity, so my guess is, T.D. 8 will become gert sometime tonight or tomorrow.

What this means for waves???

its not quite clear yet. The bulk of the strong winds in the system are aimed a little south of us, but as the storm evolves that should change a little. We should start to see the winds pointed more directly at us as soon as tropical storm force is reached. Unfortunately soon after that happens, the storm is going to start moving away from us which greatly reduces its wave making potential. I expect to see some long period swell out of this tomorrow afternoon or thursday morning, but to see the benefits of the swell we are going to need to have some favorable winds. The best chance for that will be on Thursday morning for a DP session.

For the Long term:

Looks like we could have some storms forming off the coast of africa soon, that could put us in some quality waves in about two weeks time. But thats all just speculation now, more on that as storms develop


Recap:

Look for a long period swell somewhere in the waist high range hitting wednesday or thursday AM, with the most favorable winds on Thursday morning. Tides are somewhat high in the morning so you might need to find someplace that can take a little bit of depth.

Aside from that, not much going on in the next week or so unless we get some more tropical development

PFS

Tim

Back

Some fun surf today

It always amazes me how right in front of my house the waves can be so small, when 1 mile away they can be so much bigger. i have tried to figure it out, but i cant really grasp the reasons.

anyway... for tomorrow, you will be surfing about the same size waves you were surfing today. I saw some good chest high sets come through where i was out, but every where else i looked looked like it was struggling to hit waist high.

for the long range this swell could make it to wednesday morning before dying too much, but i wouldn't count on shortboarding after that at least until the weekend when we may see another round of swell come through.

more tomorrow

Tim